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      "depth": 1,
      "text": "学科21：投资大师的思维模型",
      "anchor": "学科21投资大师的思维模型",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E5%AD%A6%E7%A7%9121%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E5%A4%A7%E5%B8%88%E7%9A%84%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"
    },
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      "depth": 2,
      "text": "巴菲特：正",
      "anchor": "巴菲特正",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E6%AD%A3"
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      "depth": 2,
      "text": "价值投资",
      "anchor": "价值投资",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E4%BB%B7%E5%80%BC%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84"
    },
    {
      "depth": 2,
      "text": "能力圈模型",
      "anchor": "能力圈模型",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%E5%9C%88%E6%A8%A1%E5%9E%8B"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "《击球的科学》",
      "anchor": "击球的科学",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E5%87%BB%E7%90%83%E7%9A%84%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "等",
      "anchor": "等",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E7%AD%89"
    },
    {
      "depth": 4,
      "text": "研究企业、模式，做到懂",
      "anchor": "研究企业模式做到懂",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6%E4%BC%81%E4%B8%9A%E6%A8%A1%E5%BC%8F%E5%81%9A%E5%88%B0%E6%87%82"
    },
    {
      "depth": 2,
      "text": "安全边际",
      "anchor": "安全边际",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E8%BE%B9%E9%99%85"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "留出buffer",
      "anchor": "留出buffer",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E7%95%99%E5%87%BAbuffer"
    },
    {
      "depth": 4,
      "text": "面对人生挫折的蓄水池",
      "anchor": "面对人生挫折的蓄水池",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E9%9D%A2%E5%AF%B9%E4%BA%BA%E7%94%9F%E6%8C%AB%E6%8A%98%E7%9A%84%E8%93%84%E6%B0%B4%E6%B1%A0"
    },
    {
      "depth": 2,
      "text": "护城河：壁垒",
      "anchor": "护城河壁垒",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E6%8A%A4%E5%9F%8E%E6%B2%B3%E5%A3%81%E5%9E%92"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "提高售价，销量不会大幅下降",
      "anchor": "提高售价销量不会大幅下降",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E6%8F%90%E9%AB%98%E5%94%AE%E4%BB%B7%E9%94%80%E9%87%8F%E4%B8%8D%E4%BC%9A%E5%A4%A7%E5%B9%85%E4%B8%8B%E9%99%8D"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "个人如何能够不被替代，不能只想赚现钱",
      "anchor": "个人如何能够不被替代不能只想赚现钱",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E4%B8%AA%E4%BA%BA%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%83%BD%E5%A4%9F%E4%B8%8D%E8%A2%AB%E6%9B%BF%E4%BB%A3%E4%B8%8D%E8%83%BD%E5%8F%AA%E6%83%B3%E8%B5%9A%E7%8E%B0%E9%92%B1"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "《巴菲特致股东的信》《聪明的投资者》",
      "anchor": "巴菲特致股东的信聪明的投资者",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E8%87%B4%E8%82%A1%E4%B8%9C%E7%9A%84%E4%BF%A1%E8%81%AA%E6%98%8E%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E8%80%85"
    },
    {
      "depth": 2,
      "text": "索罗斯：反",
      "anchor": "索罗斯反",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E7%B4%A2%E7%BD%97%E6%96%AF%E5%8F%8D"
    },
    {
      "depth": 2,
      "text": "反身性理论",
      "anchor": "反身性理论",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E5%8F%8D%E8%BA%AB%E6%80%A7%E7%90%86%E8%AE%BA"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "纠缠现象",
      "anchor": "纠缠现象",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E7%BA%A0%E7%BC%A0%E7%8E%B0%E8%B1%A1"
    },
    {
      "depth": 4,
      "text": "自指",
      "anchor": "自指",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E8%87%AA%E6%8C%87"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "有效市场假说与市场完全不符",
      "anchor": "有效市场假说与市场完全不符",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E6%9C%89%E6%95%88%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E5%81%87%E8%AF%B4%E4%B8%8E%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E5%AE%8C%E5%85%A8%E4%B8%8D%E7%AC%A6"
    },
    {
      "depth": 2,
      "text": "人类不确定性原则",
      "anchor": "人类不确定性原则",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E4%B8%8D%E7%A1%AE%E5%AE%9A%E6%80%A7%E5%8E%9F%E5%88%99"
    },
    {
      "depth": 2,
      "text": "先投资后研究",
      "anchor": "先投资后研究",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E5%85%88%E6%8A%95%E8%B5%84%E5%90%8E%E7%A0%94%E7%A9%B6"
    },
    {
      "depth": 2,
      "text": "大机会下重注",
      "anchor": "大机会下重注",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E5%A4%A7%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A%E4%B8%8B%E9%87%8D%E6%B3%A8"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "《从01》",
      "anchor": "从01",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E4%BB%8E01"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "大机会会不会是“伪机会”？",
      "anchor": "大机会会不会是伪机会",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E5%A4%A7%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A%E4%BC%9A%E4%B8%8D%E4%BC%9A%E6%98%AF%E4%BC%AA%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "成功人士的all in 可能是亿级的，不会影响他们的生活，要反思自我禀赋",
      "anchor": "成功人士的all-in-可能是亿级的不会影响他们的生活要反思自我禀赋",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E6%88%90%E5%8A%9F%E4%BA%BA%E5%A3%AB%E7%9A%84all-in-%E5%8F%AF%E8%83%BD%E6%98%AF%E4%BA%BF%E7%BA%A7%E7%9A%84%E4%B8%8D%E4%BC%9A%E5%BD%B1%E5%93%8D%E4%BB%96%E4%BB%AC%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%E8%A6%81%E5%8F%8D%E6%80%9D%E8%87%AA%E6%88%91%E7%A6%80%E8%B5%8B"
    },
    {
      "depth": 2,
      "text": "《金融炼金术》",
      "anchor": "金融炼金术",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E7%82%BC%E9%87%91%E6%9C%AF"
    },
    {
      "depth": 2,
      "text": "纳西姆.塔勒布：合",
      "anchor": "纳西姆塔勒布合",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E7%BA%B3%E8%A5%BF%E5%A7%86%E5%A1%94%E5%8B%92%E5%B8%83%E5%90%88"
    },
    {
      "depth": 2,
      "text": "杠铃策略",
      "anchor": "杠铃策略",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E6%9D%A0%E9%93%83%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"
    },
    {
      "depth": 2,
      "text": "《反脆弱》",
      "anchor": "反脆弱",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E5%8F%8D%E8%84%86%E5%BC%B1"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "降低脆弱性",
      "anchor": "降低脆弱性",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E9%99%8D%E4%BD%8E%E8%84%86%E5%BC%B1%E6%80%A7"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "拥抱杠铃策略",
      "anchor": "拥抱杠铃策略",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E6%8B%A5%E6%8A%B1%E6%9D%A0%E9%93%83%E7%AD%96%E7%95%A5"
    },
    {
      "depth": 4,
      "text": "J型曲线",
      "anchor": "j型曲线",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#j%E5%9E%8B%E6%9B%B2%E7%BA%BF"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "主动试探，不断证伪",
      "anchor": "主动试探不断证伪",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E4%B8%BB%E5%8A%A8%E8%AF%95%E6%8E%A2%E4%B8%8D%E6%96%AD%E8%AF%81%E4%BC%AA"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "三种球：玻璃球、铁球、网球",
      "anchor": "三种球玻璃球铁球网球",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E4%B8%89%E7%A7%8D%E7%90%83%E7%8E%BB%E7%92%83%E7%90%83%E9%93%81%E7%90%83%E7%BD%91%E7%90%83"
    },
    {
      "depth": 2,
      "text": "遍历性",
      "anchor": "遍历性",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E9%81%8D%E5%8E%86%E6%80%A7"
    },
    {
      "depth": 3,
      "text": "时间概率和集合概率的区别",
      "anchor": "时间概率和集合概率的区别",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E5%92%8C%E9%9B%86%E5%90%88%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%BA%E5%88%AB"
    }
  ],
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      "title": "【ChatGPT】巴菲特与芒格的投资理念、思维模式与成就",
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      "atlas": "https://www.pystone.net/?node=chatgpt-buffett-munger-investment-philosophy#knowledge-atlas",
      "label": "【ChatGPT】巴菲特与芒格的投资理念、思维模式与成就",
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      "context": "扩展研究：【ChatGPT】巴菲特与芒格的投资理念、思维模式与成就",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-21-investing-masters/#%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E6%AD%A3"
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  ],
  "incoming": [
    {
      "id": "note:courses-books-general-knowledge",
      "title": "课程、书籍与通识材料",
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      "atlas": "https://www.pystone.net/?node=courses-books-general-knowledge#knowledge-atlas",
      "label": "课程、书籍与通识材料",
      "origin": "explicit",
      "humanReviewed": true,
      "context": "林超通识课/分拆文件中的“学科21：投资大师的思维模型”导航项",
      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/courses-books-general-knowledge/#%E6%9E%97%E8%B6%85%E9%80%9A%E8%AF%86%E8%AF%BE%E5%88%86%E6%8B%86%E6%96%87%E4%BB%B6"
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  ],
  "contentMarkdown": "学科21：投资大师的思维模型\n\n![](assets/1643908128880100_Copy_100.png)\n![](assets/1643910275228118_Copy_118.png)\n\n# 学科21：投资大师的思维模型\n投资大师将一些基础模型用真金白银在金融市场中检验\n\n## 巴菲特：正\n\n> 扩展研究：[[【ChatGPT】巴菲特与芒格的投资理念、思维模式与成就]]\n\n## 价值投资\n\n## 能力圈模型\n\n![](assets/1643909100473108_Copy_108.png)\n\n### 《击球的科学》\n\n![](assets/1643909182940109_Copy_109.png)\n\n### 等\n\n![](assets/1643909284678110_Copy_110.png)\n\n#### 研究企业、模式，做到懂\n\n![](assets/1643909384724111_Copy_111.png)\n\n## 安全边际\n\n![](assets/1643909416637112_Copy_112.png)\n![](assets/1643909475598113_Copy_113.png)\n\n### 留出buffer\n\n#### 面对人生挫折的蓄水池\n\n## 护城河：壁垒\n\n### 提高售价，销量不会大幅下降\n\n### 个人如何能够不被替代，不能只想赚现钱\n\n### 《巴菲特致股东的信》《聪明的投资者》\n\n## 索罗斯：反\n\n## 反身性理论\n\n思考者会不断反思现实，而“反思”这个行为又会促进现实变化，现实变化又会改变思考者的想法，如此循环往复\n\n### 纠缠现象\n\n#### 自指\n\n### 有效市场假说与市场完全不符\n\n![](assets/1643908596093103_Copy_103.png)\n![](assets/1643908637573105_Copy_105.png)\n\n## 人类不确定性原则\n\n![](assets/1643908768137106_Copy_106.png)\n\n## 先投资后研究\n\n![](assets/1643908944960107_Copy_107.png)\n\n## 大机会下重注\n\n![](assets/1643909814871114_Copy_114.png)\n![](assets/1643909870095115_Copy_115.png)\n\n### 《从0~1》\n\n![](assets/1643910001976116_Copy_116.png)\n\n### 大机会会不会是“伪机会”？\n\n### 成功人士的all in 可能是亿级的，不会影响他们的生活，要反思自我禀赋\n\n## 《金融炼金术》\n\n![](assets/1643908458940102_Copy_102.png)\n\n## 纳西姆.塔勒布：合\n\n塔勒布的知识图谱\n![](assets/1643908195930101_Copy_101.png)\n\n## 杠铃策略\n\n![](assets/1643910234478117_Copy_117.png)\n\n## 《反脆弱》\n\n![](assets/1643910423549119_Copy_119.png)\n![](assets/1643910873595121_Copy_121.png)\n\n### 降低脆弱性\n\n![](assets/1643910938418122_Copy_122.png)\n\n### 拥抱杠铃策略\n\n![](assets/1643911315077125_Copy_125.png)\n![](assets/1643911353633126_Copy_126.png)\n![](assets/1643911381289127_Copy_127.png)\n\n#### J型曲线\n\n追求J型曲线：成本有下限，回报无上限（eg.天使投资）\n![](assets/1643911543699129_Copy_129.png)\n倒J型曲线：成本无下限，回报有上限\n![](assets/1643911590665130_Copy_130.png)\n\n### 主动试探，不断证伪\n\n形成破圈的小尝试\n![](assets/1643911770126131_Copy_131.png)\n![](assets/1643911805695132_Copy_132.png)\n\n### 三种球：玻璃球、铁球、网球\n\n## 遍历性\n\n![](assets/1643911296427124_Copy_124.png)\n\n### 时间概率和集合概率的区别\n\n一次输就有可能清盘离场，很多大道理是站在上帝视角看全局，不是站在个人视角看局部\n![](assets/1643911158947123_Copy_123.png)\n"
}