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      "text": "小概率罕见事件",
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      "text": "这个事件被误判的可能性有多大",
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      "depth": 3,
      "text": "张三患亨廷顿舞蹈症的概率",
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      "citation": "https://www.pystone.net/notes/mental-models-12-probability-statistics/#%E5%BC%A0%E4%B8%89%E6%82%A3%E4%BA%A8%E5%BB%B7%E9%A1%BF%E8%88%9E%E8%B9%88%E7%97%87%E7%9A%84%E6%A6%82%E7%8E%87"
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      "text": "贝叶斯公式简化",
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      "text": "后验概率与先验概率成正比",
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      "text": "小芳对你笑与喜欢你的概率",
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      "depth": 3,
      "text": "查理芒格的围栏围墙说",
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      "text": "均值和异常值",
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      "text": "异常值的处理办法",
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      "text": "在小数据阶段可能对一些大道理完全无感",
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  "contentMarkdown": "学科12：概率统计学重要模型\n\n# 学科12：概率统计学重要模型\n## 贝叶斯公式\n\n![](assets/1641609089464214_Copy_212.png)\n\n## 小概率罕见事件\n\n### 考虑\n\n#### 这个事件被误判的可能性有多大\n\n#### 这个事件在真实世界的发生概率有多小\n\n### 张三患亨廷顿舞蹈症的概率\n\n![](assets/1641608035846210_Copy_208.png)\n![](assets/1641608060439211_Copy_209.png)\n![](assets/1641608374920212_Copy_210.png)![](assets/1641608518438213_Copy_211.png)\n\n### 运动员检测违禁药\n\n![](assets/1641609133020215_Copy_213.png)\n\n#### 新证据与基础概率\n\n”When the facts changed , I change my mind ."——凯恩斯\n收集新证据，当新证据不断叠加，最终概率会不断高速数量级增长，即使基础概率很小，但是基础概率层出不穷，最终概率也有可能慢慢变大\n数学层面的辩证法：既不能忽视基础概率，不要被表面现象所迷惑，同时也在新证据，新信息不断积累的时候，不断调整对全局的评估\n\n## 选择大于努力\n\n### 先验概率\n\n一个事件在过去的统计中已经被验证发生的概率\n\n#### 现实中很多基础概率决定成败，而不是努力程度\n\n### 贝叶斯公式简化\n\n![](assets/1641609877961216_Copy_214.png)\n\n#### 条件概率\n\n![](assets/1641610677957219_Copy_217.png)\n\n#### 后验概率与先验概率成正比\n\n努力只是在做加减乘除，而如果乘一个极小量级的先验基础概率之后可能就显得非常苍白，有的时候不是我们的努力不够，而是所在的土壤太过贫瘠，所在的平台基础太差\n\n#### 小芳对你笑与喜欢你的概率\n\n![](assets/1641610532587218_Copy_216.png)\nP（L）”ta对你笑之前“（更正）\n\n### 查理芒格的围栏围墙说\n\n![](assets/1641610226010217_Copy_215.png)\n\n## 均值和异常值\n\n## 观察异常值\n\n即使平均值实现某种意义上的良好状况，遭遇一次异常值也有可能造成满盘皆输的局面\n![](assets/1641611512909220_Copy_218.png)\n\n## 异常值\n\n跟平均值的偏差超过两倍标准差的数值\n![](assets/1641611714318221_Copy_219.png)\n\n## 异常值的处理办法\n\n![](assets/1641611751198222_Copy_220.png)\n\n## 大数定律\n\n![](assets/1641611920987223_Copy_221.png)\n\n## 在小数据阶段可能对一些大道理完全无感\n\n年纪轻的时候接受的样本数据太少，他们可能会大幅度偏离世界的真相，而那些可能流传数百上千年的大道理，其实都是通过无数次抛硬币，最终沉淀下来的统计学经验，通常随着你的年龄增加，阅历增加，会越来越发现，他们所说的是有道理的\n\n## 小数据统计结果可能大幅度偏离大数据结论\n\n人类很难抗拒“抛几次硬币之后就开始做经验总结”的本能所以要尽可能保持耐心\n在经过更多尝试，拿到更多数据之后再进行经验总结，不要太快给一个事情贴标签，同时保持身心健康，获取数据的过程是一个持久战的过程，要不断总结复盘\n![](assets/1641612583028224_Copy_222.png)\n![](assets/1641614963034225_Copy_223.png)\n\n## 概率分布\n\n## 幂律分布\n\n马太效应，赢家通吃，二八定律\n\n## 正态分布\n\n![](assets/1641615158959226_Copy_224.png)\n"
}